Showing posts with label Fed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fed. Show all posts

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Operation Twist not impressive, fiscal stimulus needed

Fed announced yesterday that it would change the average maturity of its bond holdings towards longer term bonds. This is carried out by selling short term government bonds (2-3 years) and buying long term bonds (6-30 years). The idea of this operation is to lower long term yields thus making mortgages cheaper and stimulating economic growth through housing market. This isn't something that markets liked to hear, unfortunately. S&P500 was down more than 2% yesterday in addition to -3% already at pixel time. Not to mention DAX that is down more than 5% in trading today.


There has been a lot of talk of decreasing effect of more quantitative easing. Since yields are on record lows already the effect of manipulations performed by Fed have just marginal effect. The problem is not that long term yields are too high. Interest rates are near 0% already. The problem is economic outlook. Companies aren't investing as much as they used to hence not supporting employment, the future of individual persons is everything but certain. There's only so much that Fed can do about it. They have done everything they can.

Unfortunately Fed is one of few institutions that realizes the importance of financial markets in modern economy and their importance in supporting economic growth. Unfortunately Fed is also one of few institutions that is willing to act quick. What is needed today, is economic stimulus by fiscal expansion.

We need governments of the biggest countries to step in, initiate infrastructure projects thus directly subsidising employment. We need them to expand not contract. Even though we have a debt crisis in our hands we need to borrow (and grow) are way out of this mess. Governments tend to overspend during good times and underspend during bad times. This is not the fiscal policy we signed up for! That's the basic idea of fiscal policy - to level out economic cycles.

Debt crisis has to be handled by bold guarantees by central banks (for example unlimited purchase of government bonds) or by issuance of eurobonds for example (in the eurozone). Instead of this we are crossing our fingers and hoping that we will somehow get out of this mess, dealing with consequences.

Unfortunately things have to get really tough for this to happen. Stocks are cheap around the world. We need bold action by governments to get the stocks rising again. Watch out for these weekend meetings of countries. I wouldn't want to be short ahead of some bold plans when these would be announced at some point.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Panic or what?

In case you haven't seen the picture, here's an insight to stock market movements.


Now take a look at the S&P500 stock index for the last 5 years.


Are we still in denial? Have we gone through panic already? Are we ready to capitulate? The only way you would know is if you felt sick each morning and you are ready to sell with whatever losses. Stock markets usually rise much slower then they fall. If you are a long term investor (2 years or more) then you wouldn't need to worry too much since eventually the markets will bounce back and we can start waiting for euphoria.

The bottom of 2009 came after the financial world as we know it was about to end unless lots of tax payers money was used to bail out some of the biggest banks in the world. Our current fears are driven by uncertainty and possibility that we might be heading for a recession again. The fundamental situation is not as bad than it was two years ago which makes me think that we will see the hopeless despondency phase (the bottom) much higher than in 2009. We might already be in a depression phase.

It is dangerous to catch a falling knife though so I would wait until we have seen some stability and strength in the market before I would start shopping for bargains again. There is nothing rational about market bottoms. Volume levels are also important since that is an indicator of smart money entering (or leaving) the market.

On Friday Ben Bernanke from the Fed is about to deliver a speech on economic conditions. While we probably won't hear QE3 or something similar announced we will get a pretty good picture on how the Fed sees the situation in economy. I think we will see some speculation on the markets before that. If you see markets rising this week then make sure you won't fall to "sell-the-news" reaction. Whatever the news are, we will probably see some selling action assuming there will be a lot of green this week.

Keep your head cool, your emotions in tack and we will see some news pretty soon.