Monday, February 10, 2014

Tastes like short covering (euros)

Futures positioning data ( revealed that non-commercial positioning changed during the week before 4th of February from net long 14k contracts to net short 13k contracts. This means that a lot of shorts were established in the range of 1.35-1.355. I bet the next futures positioning data on Friday reveals that a lot of those shorts were covered after ECB kept rates on hold. This would mean that the current rally is built on short covering, especially if you look at declining industrial output today in Italy and France while EURUSD is making new highs. I'm shorting this pair on the basis that this rally is mostly short covering, the outlook for the Eurozone is still glim and technical picture looks like there might be a reversal any moment now. Check the chart below for the trade. I have established my shorts with a 1.34 target and stop above 1.37.

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